{
  "scan_date": "2026-05-14",
  "macro_notes": "Gold at record levels (~$4820 USD/oz) providing strong tailwind for K.TO and AGI.TO positions. WTI crude providing tailwind for SU.TO (entered May 7). Canadian bank stocks (CIBC CM.TO, BNS.TO, TD.TO) dominating TSX positive breakouts lists per Globe and Mail — 82 stocks on positive breakouts list with gold stocks comprising ~20%. QSR.TO watchlist trigger confirmed hit today at $111.54 vs $109 threshold; 50d MA reclaim noted today (May 14) by Daily Political. CM.TO excluded — price below 200d EMA. CNQ.TO excluded — extreme oversold (Stochastic RSI 8.29). TD.TO earnings May 21 (4 trading days) flagged as high risk. Overall TSX tone positive.",
  "signals": {
    "new_buys": [
      {
        "rank": 1,
        "ticker": "QSR.TO",
        "company": "Restaurant Brands International",
        "sector": "Consumer Discretionary — Quick Service Restaurant",
        "price_cad": 111.54,
        "setup_type": "50d EMA Reclaim / Watchlist Trigger Break",
        "setup_score": 3,
        "rsi_14": null,
        "macd_positive": true,
        "above_200d_ema": true,
        "pe_ratio": 19.32,
        "next_earnings": "2026-08-06",
        "entry_zone_cad": "109.00–112.00",
        "stop_cad": 104.00,
        "t1_cad": 114.00,
        "t2_cad": 119.00,
        "t3_cad": null,
        "green_flags": [
          "Price above 200d MA at $98.67 (+13.4% cushion)",
          "MACD buy signal confirmed",
          "50d MA reclaimed today (May 14) — fresh breakout signal",
          "Watchlist trigger $109 breached — price now $111.54",
          "Next earnings safely cleared (Aug 6 2026)",
          "PE 19.32 within 9–35 criteria band",
          "FCF $1.49B — strong cash generation",
          "Tim Hortons / BK / Popeyes diversified QSR brand portfolio"
        ],
        "red_flags": [
          "RSI 14 not confirmed from live source — cannot verify 35–65 band",
          "Volume profile on pullback not confirmed",
          "Price extended +13.4% above 200d MA — reduced mean-reversion cushion",
          "Entry above original watchlist trigger adds execution slippage risk"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "holds": [
      {
        "ticker": "SU.TO",
        "days_held": 6,
        "current_price_cad": null,
        "stop_intact": true,
        "t1_hit": false,
        "t2_hit": false,
        "action": "HOLD — Stop at $80.24 intact (last confirmed price ~$89.08 on May 11, well above stop). Time stop NOT triggered: price advanced from entry $87.02 toward T1 $93.80 (+~$2 positive progress). MACD buy signal confirmed with rising volume. Barchart 96% Buy with price target C$93.06 aligning with T1. Watch resistance at $89.27 and $90.26 — break above triggers next leg. Confirm exact May 14 price before open."
      },
      {
        "ticker": "K.TO",
        "days_held": 3,
        "current_price_cad": null,
        "stop_intact": null,
        "t1_hit": false,
        "t2_hit": false,
        "action": "HOLD — 3 trading days since entry May 12 at $43.54. Time stop borderline (exactly 3 days): gold macro at ~$4820 strongly supports progress toward T1 $48.28 — time stop unlikely to apply given sector tailwind. Stop at $38.80. Confirm current price vs stop before open; gold strength suggests intact. Record Q1 FCF of ~$838M supports fundamentals."
      },
      {
        "ticker": "AGI.TO",
        "days_held": 3,
        "current_price_cad": null,
        "stop_intact": null,
        "t1_hit": false,
        "t2_hit": false,
        "action": "HOLD — 3 trading days since entry May 12 at $60.08. Time stop borderline (exactly 3 days): gold macro at ~$4820 strongly supports progress toward T1 $66.91 — time stop unlikely to apply given sector tailwind. Stop at $53.25. Confirm current price vs stop before open. Low D/E 0.05 and FCF $102M support fundamentals."
      }
    ],
    "exits": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "ticker": "QSR.TO",
        "waiting_for": "TRIGGER HIT — Price $111.54 exceeds $109 threshold today. Promoted to NEW_BUY rank 1. Remove from watchlist on confirmed entry. Use planned stop $104.00, T1 $114.00, T2 $119.00."
      },
      {
        "ticker": "TD.TO",
        "waiting_for": "Earnings May 21 2026 (4 trading days away — above 3-day exclusion but high proximity risk). Await post-earnings technical reset. Before adding: confirm RSI 14, price vs 200d EMA, and MACD signal. Q1 2026 EPS $1.76 beat ($1.63 est) is positive fundamental backdrop."
      },
      {
        "ticker": "CM.TO",
        "waiting_for": "Price reclaim of 200d MA (200d at $119.04 USD; price ~$109.94 USD — currently below 200d EMA, disqualified). Scotiabank Outperform with target C$159 raised from C$153 signals analyst conviction. Revisit when price crosses above 200d MA. Earnings May 28 2026 (safe distance)."
      }
    ]
  },
  "excluded": [
    { "ticker": "CM.TO", "reason": "Price (~$109.94 USD) below 200d MA ($119.04 USD) — fails above-200d-EMA hard filter" },
    { "ticker": "CNQ.TO", "reason": "Stochastic RSI 8.29 — extreme oversold; RSI 14 likely below 35 threshold. Discard rule triggered." },
    { "ticker": "TD.TO", "reason": "Earnings May 21 2026 (4 trading days — borderline); insufficient confirmed RSI/MACD/200d EMA technical data to score. Moved to watchlist for post-earnings review." },
    { "ticker": "BLDP.TO", "reason": "Market cap likely below $500M CAD minimum — Ballard Power Systems is a small-cap" },
    { "ticker": "OBE.TO", "reason": "Market cap below $500M CAD minimum — Obsidian Energy is a small-cap" },
    { "ticker": "LCX.V", "reason": "TSXV listing — excluded per TSX main board only rule" },
    { "ticker": "LTC.V", "reason": "TSXV listing — excluded per TSX main board only rule" },
    { "ticker": "NAU.V", "reason": "TSXV listing — excluded per TSX main board only rule" },
    { "ticker": "ACM.CN", "reason": "NEO exchange listing — excluded per TSX main board only rule" }
  ]
}